You read it here first…
Making future predictions is great fun, especially in a New Year. So when I was challenged by Virginia Yonkers to predict a new decade, I couldn’t resist. If I get anywhere near with even one of these I’ll be amazed…
- There will be a tipping point where video blogging – we may not call it video blogging, vlogging, or whatever by then – will become mainstream; probably initiated by the introduction of a killer platform coinciding with the emergence of a cultural or social trend that lends itself to visual commentary.
- Search engine lists will be replaced by visual mapping formats. These will, by necessity, remain hierarchical, but will incorporate dynamic and semantic forms of navigation.
- The development and eventual affordability of e-book readers and the increase in social text annotation (see an earlier post) will influence an unexpected shift in emphasis back to formal key texts; serving as a basis for streams of discourse (formal and informal) contextualised around key works. These streams will be increasingly multimodal.
- The widespread adoption of Personal Learning Environments (PLE) will be realised, in sorts, but only through the reification of tools into competing single platforms as social media become consumed by a handful of companies (Google, Microsoft, the usual suspects).
- Universities will continue to engage with social media platforms at a ‘just enough’ level; more as commercial branding exercises within the global marketplace than providing Open Education Resources (OER) or Open Access.
Image: Chicago Tribune, May 25, 1958
Tags: higher education, web 2.0
January 10th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Andy, I’m glad you took my challenge. I agree with all of those. I was especially interested the change in blogging. Like you, I feel blogging will change drastically within the next decade. I hadn’t thought of the video format, although it seems that I see it more and more in blogs today.
Your second prediction reminds me of a comment I just posted on elearning technology. I said, “I think the next big discovery will be a navigational tool through networks (there might already be something in use). Simply explain what type of information you are looking for and there will be a link to clusters of networks working on the same problems.”
I knew your take would bring in something different, however, given your focus on visual learning.
January 19th, 2010 at 9:18 am
Andy, I think digital storytelling will emerge as an important educational tool for reflection and develop from an individual workshop-based activity to become more social and Web-based.
March 22nd, 2010 at 9:44 am
In reference to number two you might want to look at this video about pivot http://www.ted.com/talks/gary_flake_is_pivot_a_turning_point_for_web_exploration.html